Time-Space Evolution and Drivers of CO2 Emissions from Land Utilization in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020

Abstract

One of the key elements influencing carbon emissions is changes in land use, which affects the roles of carbon sources and sinks. We calculated the carbon emissions from land use in Xinjiang, constructed a Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model (GTWR), and investigated the spatio-temporal evolutionary trajectory and heterogeneity of carbon emissions based on the land use data of three periods from 2000 to 2020 and the socio-economic and energy data of the same period. The results show the following: ① in Xinjiang, the area of water, forests, grasslands, and idle land declined between 2000 and 2020, while the area of construction and agricultural land increased; ② Xinjiang’s land-use-related carbon emissions are rising annually. The primary driver of this expansion is the region’s growing area of construction land; ③ the degree of economic development, the amount of land used for building, and the degree of urbanization are the primary factors influencing carbon emissions in Xinjiang; and ④ In Xinjiang, there is a clear spatial heterogeneity in the factors that influence carbon emissions. Additionally, different influencing factors have different effects on emissions, depending on the region and stage of development, indicating that the level of resources and the region’s economic center of gravity have different effects on emissions.