Time series study on the effects of daily average temperature on the mortality from respiratory diseases and circulatory diseases: a case study in Mianyang City

Abstract

BackgroundClimate change caused by environmental pollution is the most important one of many environmental health hazards currently faced by human beings. In particular, the extreme temperature is an important risk factor for death from respiratory and circulatory diseases. This study aims to explore the meteorological-health effect and find out the vulnerable individuals of extreme temperature events in a less developed city in western China.MethodWe collected the meteorological data and data of death caused by respiratory and circulatory diseases in Mianyang City from 2013 to 2019. The nonlinear distributed lag model and the generalized additive models were combined to study the influence of daily average temperature (DAT) on mortality from respiratory and circulatory diseases in different genders, ages.ResultsThe exposure-response curves between DAT and mortality from respiratory and circulatory diseases presented a nonlinear characteristic of the “V” type. Cumulative Relative Risk of 30 days (CRR30) of deaths from respiratory diseases with 4.48 (2.98, 6.73) was higher than that from circulatory diseases with 2.77 (1.96, 3.92) at extremely low temperature, while there was no obvious difference at extremely high temperature. The health effects of low temperatures on the respiratory system of people of all ages and genders were persistent, while that of high temperatures were acute and short-term. The circulatory systems of people aged < 65 years were more susceptible to acute effects of cold temperatures, while the effects were delayed in females and people aged ≥65 years.ConclusionBoth low and high temperatures increased the risk of mortality from respiratory and circulatory diseases. Cold effects seemed to last longer than heat did.