Time series of mathematics education program, FKIP university of jember enthusiast through exponential smoothing method

Abstract

The purpose of this research was to discuss the implementation of exponential smoothing methods in predicting the number of Mathematics Education Study Program enthusiasts, FKIP University of Jember based on entrance exam. The methodology of the exponential smoothing forecasting method were sketching the time series plot, identifying the model, selecting the best model and forecasting. The accuracy of the estimation results could be seen from the smallest MAPE value. The results of this research showed that the forecasting results were close to the actual data because the MAPE value obtained in this research respectively are close to criteria good or quite good. As a result it can be concluded that forecasting with the exponential smoothing method in predicting the number of Mathematics Education Study Program enthusiasts, FKIP University of Jember had good accuracy since MAPE on ten percent to twenty percent, and had quite good accuracy since MAPE on twenty percent to fifty percent.