Abstract
Road traffic accidents (RTA) are commonly encountered incidents that can cause injuries, death, and property damage to members of society. Ethiopia is one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. Report of Transport and Communication from 2012 to 2014, shows an increment in the number of traffic accidents in Ethiopia. Amhara region accounted for 27.3% of the total road traffic accident-related deaths in Ethiopia during the year 2008/9, which is the highest share among all regions in Ethiopia. The current research aims to model the trend of injury, fatal and total road traffic accidents in the Amhara region from September 2013 to May 2017. Monthly reported traffic accidents were obtained from the traffic department of the Amhara region police commission. The most universal class of models for forecasting time series data called Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) models were applied to model the trends and patterns of road traffic accident cases in the Amhara region. The average number of observed injury RTA, fatal RTA, and total RTA were 27.2, 14, and 78.2 per month respectively. It was observed that a relatively large number of RTA’s are reported on Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday relative to other days of the week. The data also reveals that more than 60% of accidents involve drivers between the ages of 18–30 years. ARIMA (2,0,0) (1,0,0) ARIMA (2,0,0) and ARIMA (2,0,0) (1,1,0) were fitted as the best model for total injury accidents, fatal RTA and total RTA data respectively. A 48 months forecast was made based on the fitted models and it can be concluded that road traffic accident cases would continue at the non-decreasing rate in the Amhara region for the predicted periods. Therefore, the findings of this study draw attention to the importance of implementing improved better policies and close monitoring of road trafficking to change the existing non-decreasing trend of road traffic accidents in the region.
Highlights
According to Farag, Hashim [1], a road traffic accident is a random event involving a road user that results in property damage, death, or injury
The current study applied time series analysis to model the patterns of the total number of road traffic accidents that lead to injury, total fatal road traffic accidents, and the total number of traffic accidents that occurred from September 2013 to May 2017 in the Amhara region, Ethiopia
The summary statistics for counts of Total Injuries, Fatal accidents, and Total number of Road traffic accidents (RTA) during the study period are presented below
Summary
According to Farag, Hashim [1], a road traffic accident is a random event involving a road user that results in property damage, death, or injury. The Global status report on road safety 2018, launched by WHO in December 2018, highlights that the number of annual road traffic deaths has reached 1.35 million, and road traffic injuries are the leading killer of people aged 5–29 years [2]. The causes of RTAs among others include human or driver errors, vehicle characteristics, traffic infrastructures including engineering design, road maintenance, and traffic regulation [3]. Driver attitude including road courtesy and behavior, driving under the influence of drugs especially alcohol, gender, use of seat belts, driver age (teenage drivers and elderly drivers) are among the recognized human factors associated with RTAs [3, 4]. Though is that RTArelated fatalities seem to increase with the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in lower-income countries and decrease with GDP per capita in wealthy countries [6]
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