Time Series Forecasting Using a Hybrid RBF Neural Network and AR Model Based On Binomial Smoothing

Abstract

ANNARIMA that combines both autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and artificial neural network (ANN) model is a valuable tool for modeling and forecasting nonlinear time series, yet the over-fitting problem is more likely to occur in neural network models. This paper provides a hybrid methodology that combines both radial basis function (RBF) neural network and auto regression (AR) model based on binomial smoothing (BS) technique which is efficient in data processing, which is called BSRBFAR. This method is examined by using the data of Canadian Lynx data. Empirical results indicate that the over-fitting problem can be eased using RBF neural network based on binomial smoothing which is called BS-RBF, and the hybrid model—BS-RBFAR can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by BSRBF used separately. Keywords—binomial smoothing (BS), hybrid, Canadian Lynx data, forecasting accuracy.