Time Series Forecasting of the Incidence of Digestive Diseases in the Russian Federation

Abstract

Introduction: The problem of diseases of the digestive system has a pronounced social and economic impact, as it often leads to long-term sick leave, disability, and mortality. The study of the structure of gastrointestinal disease incidence and the analysis of its rates facilitate improvement of preventive measures aimed at reducing the incidence both at the regional and national levels. Objective: To make a short-term forecast of the incidence of gastrointestinal diseases in the Russian Federation. Materials and methods: The time series of data was retrieved from statistics of the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation (Rosstat) for the years 1990–2021 and studied using the Foster–Stuart, Dickey–Fuller, and Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin tests. Forecasting was carried out using the Holt-Winters and Box-Jenkins models. The mean absolute error and root mean square error were estimated to evaluate the forecast accuracy. Results: The time series study of the incidence of digestive diseases has helped build a predictive model. Its findings show an increase in the incidence of gastrointestinal disorders in the country since 2021, which complies with Rosstat data. Conclusion: The forecasts made using the developed predictive model confirm the rising incidence of diseases of the digestive system in the population of the Russian Federation.