Time Series Comparison of Models of Auto and Motorcycle Ownership and Mode Choice in a Changing Transportation Environment

Abstract

This paper presents the results of models of household auto and motorcycle ownership and mode choice that were respectively developed on the basis of two large-scale travel surveys conducted nearly a decade apart. In the Jakarta, Indonesia, metropolitan area, unprecedented changes in the transportation environment, including growth in vehicle ownership and resultant changes in mode shares, occurred during this time. A time series comparison of the models was made, the implications of the major changes that occurred in Jakarta are discussed. Interpretation of the effects of different variables (including basic travel, household, and individual characteristics) in the models estimated for 2002 and 2010 led to insights relative to the changes in the transportation environment and an increase in the complexity of travel behavior. As long as the context of the society does not change, both models should remain unchanged with fixed parameters over a period of time. However, the models indicate quite different parameters with different degrees of significance. Transferability of disaggregate choice models may not always apply in developing urban areas such as Jakarta, even though the model structure remains the same. Such implications may also be worth studying for other urban areas, although similarities may be restricted to regions that share modal and cultural norms.