Time Series Analysis of Number of Road Motor Vehicles in Turkey

Abstract

Recently there has been an increased interest in number of road motor vehicles in Turkey. Number of road motor vehicles in Turkey is increasing at an alarming rate and has raised major concerns. There is a feeling that the rapid growth of traffic should be accompanied by additional efforts to improve traffic safety, in order to stop the corresponding increase in number of road motor vehicles. In this study the developments of traffic and number of road vehicles are investigated and forecasts are made. Time series with Box - Jenkins method was applied to 47 years of annual number of road motor vehicles data from 1966 to 2013 to determine patterns of road traffic safety cases. Models were subsequently developed for number of road motor vehicles in Turkey. ARIMA(0,2,1) was used to model the number of road vehicles data from 1966 to 2013. Model showed that number of road motor vehicles in Turkey would continue to increase. In this study, the number of road motor vehicle in Turkey in the period between 1966 and 2013 is taken annually data from Turkey Statistical Institute. In the second part of the study Box-Jenkins or ARIMA technique is described. In the third chapter, the number of motor vehicle is predicted by using Box-Jenkins technique for the period between 1966 and 2013 in Turkey and the obtained results are given. In the fourth part there is conclusion and general comments.