Time series analysis of groundwater levels and projection of future trend

Abstract

A study was under taken for identifying the trends in pre and post-monsoon groundwater levels using Mann- Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, and for time series modelling of groundwater levels for forecasting the pre and post-monsoon water levels in Karnal district of Haryana. Results showed that the groundwater levels had significantly declined during 1974 to 2010. Average rates of water level decline were 0.228 and 0.267 m/yr during pre and postmonsoon seasons, respectively. There was rapid decline in water level between 2001 and 2010. The ARIMA (0, 1, 2) was identified as the appropriate model for time series modelling and forecasting. Results showed that the pre and postmonsoon groundwater level in 2050 would decline by 12.97 m and 12.00 m over the observed water level in 2010, and reach to a level of 29.95 m and 28.14 m below ground surface. The average rate of decline of pre and post-monsoon groundwater level in the district during this period would be 0.32 and 0.30 m/yr, respectively.