Time series analysis of fine particulate matter and death risk among residents in an urban area of Chongqing City in 2013-2020

Abstract

To investigate the effects of the concentration of fine particulate matter(PM_(2.5)) on the risk of death among residents in an urban area of Chongqing, China. Daily data on mean PM_(2.5) concentration, meteorological factors(air temperature and relative humidity), and the number of deaths from 2013 to 2020 in this urban area were collected. A generalized additive model was used to analyze the association of PM_(2.5) concentration with the number of deaths, and stratified analyses by sex and age were further performed. In this area from 2013 to 2020, the median concentration of atmospheric ambient PM_(2.5) was 44.00 μg/m~3; 48 089 non-accidental deaths, 19 252 deaths from circulatory diseases, and 8753 deaths from respiratory diseases were reported. The PM_(2.5) concentration was higher in winter and spring. The number of deaths showed no obvious seasonal changes. The time series analysis showed that for every 10 μg/m~3 increase in the PM_(2.5) concentration, the risks of non-accidental death(lag03), circulatory diseases-caused death(lag3), and respiratory diseases-caused death(lag03) increased by 0.64%(95% CI 0.07%-1.21%), 0.68%(95% CI 0.05%-1.32%) and 1.72%(95% CI 0.54%-2.90%), respectively. After adjusting for several gaseous pollutants(PM_(10), NO_2, O_3, SO_2 and CO), the impact of PM_(2.5) concentration on residents' health had no significant changes. The stratified analyses by sex and age showed that when the PM_(2.5) concentration increased, the risks of non-accidental death and death from respiratory diseases were higher in women and residents aged ≥65 years than in men and higher in residents aged ≥65 years than in those aged 5-64 years, but there were no significant differences between the groups. PM_(2.5) pollution may increase the risk of death for residents in this urban area in Chongqing.