Abstract
BackgroundMonitoring and predicting dengue incidence facilitates early public health responses to minimize morbidity and mortality. Weather variables are potential predictors of dengue incidence. This study explored the impact of weather variability on the transmission of dengue fever in the subtropical city of Guangzhou, China.MethodsTime series Poisson regression analysis was performed using data on monthly weather variables and monthly notified cases of dengue fever in Guangzhou, China for the period of 2001-2006. Estimates of the Poisson model parameters was implemented using the Generalized Estimating Equation (GEE) approach; the quasi-likelihood based information criterion (QICu) was used to select the most parsimonious model.ResultsTwo best fitting models, with the smallest QICu values, are selected to characterize the relationship between monthly dengue incidence and weather variables. Minimum temperature and wind velocity are significant predictors of dengue incidence. Further inclusion of minimum humidity in the model provides a better fit.ConclusionMinimum temperature and minimum humidity, at a lag of one month, are positively associated with dengue incidence in the subtropical city of Guangzhou, China. Wind velocity is inversely associated with dengue incidence of the same month. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of dengue transmission.
Highlights
Monitoring and predicting dengue incidence facilitates early public health responses to minimize morbidity and mortality
Larger inter-annual variations were observed for the minimum humidity and wind velocity measurements
We used Poisson regression based on generalized estimating equations (GEE) to examine the effect of weather variability on the incidence of dengue fever in the subtropical city of Guangzhou for the 2001-2006 period
Summary
Monitoring and predicting dengue incidence facilitates early public health responses to minimize morbidity and mortality. This study explored the impact of weather variability on the transmission of dengue fever in the subtropical city of Guangzhou, China. Dengue fever is an arboviral disease transmitted by mosquitoes in tropical and subtropical areas around the world. It is caused by one of four closely related but antigenically distinct virus serotypes (DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3, and DEN-4) of the genus Flavivirus [1]. In China, outbreaks of dengue-like illness were not uncommon in the 1940s etiological and epidemiological investigations were not carried out. An outbreak of dengue fever due to DEN-4 virus occurred in Foshan City of Guangdong Province in 1978 [3]. Given the widespread distribution of competent vectors, global warming, and the increasing population movement, dengue is likely to be a continuous threat in China for many years to come [4]
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