Time series analysis of correlativity between pulmonary tuberculosis and seasonal meteorological factors based on theory of Human-Environmental Inter Relation

Abstract

Abstract Objective This paper aims to study the correlativity between the number of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases and seasonal meteorological factors in Beijing. Methods Based on theory of Human–Environmental Inter Relation in Huangdi's Internal Classics, we adopted monthly cases of PTB in Beijing from 2004 to 2011, and established a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. Using the cross-correlation function (CCF), we then analyzed the correlation between meteorological factors and number of infected patients. The related meteorological factors were subsequently integrated, to establish a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with explanatory variables (SARIMAX) model, which was used to estimate and verify the number of PTB cases in 2012. Results In this study, a SARIMA(0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 model was established; CCF analysis was used to reveal the correlativity between PTB and precipitation with 1 lag, relative humidity with 1 lag. Then, integrated with relative humidity with 1 lag (β = 2.405, 95% confidence interval: 0.433–4.377), the SARIMAX prediction model was proved to be an accurate approach for predicting local situations of PTB occurrence. Conclusions The occurrence of PTB is correlated with seasonal meteorological factors. Combining these factors, an exact prediction model can be established, to estimate of the number of PTB infected patients.