Time-series analysis of blood pressure changes after the guideline update in 2019 and the coronavirus disease pandemic in 2020 using Japanese longitudinal data.

Abstract

We assessed blood pressure (BP) changes during fiscal years (April to March of the following year) 2015–2020 to clarify the effect of the state of emergency due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020. We then considered BP in 2019 separately, as the Japanese hypertension guidelines were updated in 2019. The present retrospective cohort study extracted data from 157,510 Japanese individuals aged <75 years (mean age: 50.3 years, men: 67.5%) from the annual health check-up data of the DeSC database. The trends in BP were assessed using a repeated measures linear mixed model. After adjusting for the month of health check-ups to exclude seasonal BP variation, systolic BP linearly increased during fiscal years 2015–2018. From the value estimated by the trend in 2015–2018, systolic BP was lower by ≤1 mmHg in fiscal year 2019 among the treated participants. Meanwhile, systolic/diastolic BP (95% confidence interval) increased by 2.11 (1.97–2.24)/1.05 (0.96–1.14) mmHg for untreated women (n = 43,292), 1.60 (1.51–1.70)/1.17 (1.11–1.24) mmHg for untreated men (n = 88,479), 1.92 (1.60–2.23)/0.46 (0.25–0.67) mmHg for treated women (n = 7855), and 1.00 (0.79–1.21)/0.39 (0.25–0.53) mmHg for treated men (n = 17,884) in fiscal year 2020. These increases remained time-dependent covariates after adjustments for age, body mass index, alcohol consumption, smoking, physical activity, and blood sampling indices. Social change due to the pandemic might have increased BP by approximately 1–2/0.5–1 mmHg. Meanwhile, only a slight decrease in BP was observed immediately after the guideline update in Japan.