Abstract
Electrical generation in Ecuador mainly comes from hydroelectric and thermo-fossil sources, with the former amounting to almost half of the national production. Even though hydroelectric power sources are highly stable, there is a threat of droughts and floods affecting Ecuadorian water reservoirs and producing electrical faults, as highlighted by the 2009 Ecuador electricity crisis. Therefore, predicting the behavior of the hydroelectric system is crucial to develop appropriate planning strategies and a good starting point for energy policy decisions. In this paper, we developed a time series predictive model of hydroelectric power production in Ecuador. To this aim, we used production and precipitation data from 2000 to 2015 and compared the Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) and the Box-Tiao (ARIMAX) regression methods. The results showed that the best model is the ARIMAX (1,1,1) (1,0,0)12, which considers an exogenous variable precipitation in the Napo River basin and can accurately predict monthly production values up to a year in advance. This model can provide valuable insights to Ecuadorian energy managers and policymakers.
Highlights
Between 1973 and 2016, the world gross electricity production increased from 6298 TWh to25,082 TWh, an average annual growth rate of 3.3% [1,2]
TheseStationary functions are useful for diagnosing the p, d, q components of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models
The single autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF) are observation of a period transmits directly to the observation k periods ahead, i.e., correlogram functions to determine the degree of correlation between two consecutive values of the (Y, Y ), (Y, Y ), ... (Y, Y )
Summary
Between 1973 and 2016, the world gross electricity production increased from 6298 TWh to. 25,082 TWh, an average annual growth rate of 3.3% [1,2]. In 1973, fossil sources generated 75.2% of electric power, while in 2016, they accounted for 65.3% of the production. The proportion of fossil fuels has decreased during this period, the absolute figures are very high due to the rising world population and per capita energy consumption. As a matter of fact, the amount of CO2 emissions almost doubled, from 15,460 to 32,316 Mt. several proposals have recently emerged to incorporate. CO2 reduction criteria to coal/biomass combustion systems [3,4,5]. The role of green sources in the energy mix has gained relevance in the last decades
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