Abstract
More and more traction stations of new high-speed railway are connected to the power grid, and the major challenges to the power grid has been brought. This paper proposes a probabilistic method for the timing influence of traction load with small sample on power grid based on non-parametric Bootstrap and kernel density estimation. Firstly, in view of the small sample problem of traction load test data, the timing samples of traction load of are obtained using the non-parametric Bootstrap. Secondly, the equivalent three-phase model of the traction power supply system is obtained through the voltage/current transformation matrix of the traction transformer. The three-phase power flow calculation model of the power system with traction load is established. Then, the three-phase time sequence probabilistic power flow is calculated by the Monte Carlo simulation, and the Kernel density estimation (KDE) is used to calculate the probability distribution of output random variable. Finally, the timing influence of traction load on the voltage amplitude and unbalance degree of grid nodes are analysed by the modified IEEE-14 bus three-phase system. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
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