Abstract
To evaluate the transportation time reliability of the maritime transportation network for China’s crude oil imports under node capacity variations resulting from extreme events, a framework incorporating bi-level programming and a Monte Carlo simulation is proposed in this paper. Under this framework, the imported crude oil volume from each source country is considered to be a decision variable, and may change in correspondence to node capacity variations. The evaluation results illustrate that when strait or canal nodes were subject to capacity variations, the network transportation time reliability was relatively low. Conversely, the transportation time reliability was relatively high when port nodes were under capacity variations. In addition, the Taiwan Strait, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Malacca were identified as vulnerable nodes according to the transportation time reliability results. These results can assist government decision-makers and tanker company strategic planners to better plan crude oil import and transportation strategies.
Highlights
According to the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA), China surpassed the UnitedStates in 2017 as the world’s largest crude oil importer, and more than 90% of the imported crude oil is carried by maritime transportation [1]
The transportation time reliability of maritime transportation will affect the timely supply of crude oil, which affects the smooth operation of the national economy
The lowest transportation time reliability was was more than 70% for Port Ras Tanura and Fao
Summary
According to the U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA), China surpassed the UnitedStates in 2017 as the world’s largest crude oil importer, and more than 90% of the imported crude oil is carried by maritime transportation [1]. The transportation time reliability of maritime transportation will affect the timely supply of crude oil, which affects the smooth operation of the national economy. Transportation time reliability is defined as the probability that the transportation time under a degradable network is within a specified threshold [2]. The maritime transportation network for China’s imported crude oil is composed of a set of port, strait, and canal nodes and a set of legs between nodes. The port nodes consist of major crude oil loading ports in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, as well as unloading ports in
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
