Time-of-Arrival Taxi Conformance Monitoring for Surface Operations

Abstract

able to pass or arrive at specified checkpoints on a taxi route on time. The proposed procedure is first based on predicting times of arrival at a checkpoint. Two different time-of-arrival prediction methods are presented. The dead-reckoning method assumes that the aircraft maintain a constant speed in the near future. In comparison, the intent modeling method assumes a dynamic speed profile that consists of a series of different segments. In each segment, the aircraft may accelerate, decelerate, or maintain a constant speed. Both the taxi route geometry and aircraft performance capabilities are used in establishing the natures andmagnitudes of these segments. Next, ataxi conformance monitoring criterion is introduced that takes into consideration the range of feasible aircraft times of arrival at the checkpoint, or time controllability. It takes as inputs current measured aircraft states, aircraft speed limits, its maximum acceleration and deceleration capabilities, and distance to the checkpoint. Human-in-the-loop simulation traffic datafrom the Dallas–Fort Worth airport is used andMonte Carlosimulations are conducted over likely uncertainties of aircraft state measurements to evaluate the proposed methods in terms of time-of-arrival prediction accuracy, speed profile matching, and conformance prediction reliability.