Abstract
A system-of-systems (SoS) approach is often used for simulating disruptions to business and infrastructure system networks allowing for integration of several models into one simulation. However, the integration is frequently challenging as each system is designed individually with different characteristics, such as time granularity. Understanding the impact of time granularity on propagation of disruptions between businesses and infrastructure systems and finding the appropriate granularity for the SoS simulation remain as major challenges. To tackle these, we explore how time granularity, recovery time, and disruption size affect the propagation of disruptions between constituent systems of an SoS simulation. To address this issue, we developed a high level architecture (HLA) simulation of three networks and performed a series of simulation experiments. Our results revealed that time granularity and especially recovery time have huge impact on propagation of disruptions. Consequently, we developed a model for selecting an appropriate time granularity for an SoS simulation based on expected recovery time. Our simulation experiments show that time granularity should be less than 1.13 of expected recovery time. We identified some areas for future research centered around extending the experimental factors space.
Highlights
Development of new technologies results in infrastructure systems becoming more interdependent, introducing additional complexities
We developed two models to assist in selecting an adequate time granularity based on expected recovery time and desired accuracy of the simulation
The results from the simulation experiment demonstrated that time granularity, recovery time from disruptions, and disruption size all had a significant impact on the outcome of our simulation
Summary
Development of new technologies results in infrastructure systems becoming more interdependent, introducing additional complexities. These systems require and produce inputs and outputs for internal use by the systems themselves, and for other infrastructure systems and businesses. Often, those businesses provide infrastructure resources that are delivered over a systems network. Those businesses provide infrastructure resources that are delivered over a systems network Along with these heightened interdependencies, systems disruptions are increasing in both magnitude and frequency. While a major concern of designers is the proper response to disruptions, planners and policymakers must recognize how disruptions emerging in one system can affect other systems, and how disruptions propagate from one system to another
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