Time-dependent reliability analysis through projection outline-based adaptive Kriging

Abstract

Time-dependent reliability analysis (TRA) has drawn much attention due to its ability in measuring the probability that a system or component keeps safe in the full life cycle. Since it is difficult to efficiently obtain accurate results for TRA problems with expensive simulation demand, many surrogate model-based methods have been proposed to handle this challenge. Moreover, when both random and interval uncertainties are included in these TRA problems simultaneously, the analysis process will be more complicated. In this paper, two methods based on projection outline adaptive Kriging (POK) are proposed to handle TRA and TRA with mixed interval uncertainties (iTRA), respectively. Firstly, POK-TRA method is put forward for the TRA problems with different stochastic processes. Different from current TRA methods, POK-TRA regards the time parameter as a special interval variable, which converts TRA problem into a special hybrid reliability analysis (HRA) problem with one interval variable. Based on the concept of projection outline as well as a correlation condition, an efficient sampling strategy is proposed to refine the Kriging model adaptively. Secondly, POK-TRA is extended to the time-dependent reliability analysis including both random and interval variables (POK-iTRA). By inheriting the processing strategy of time parameter and stochastic processes, the iTRA problem is converted into the HRA problem with multiple interval variables. Finally, four cases are used to show the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.