Time-dependent reliability analysis of structural systems based on parallel active learning Kriging model

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Time-dependent reliability analysis quantifies the failures of structural systems due to time-dependent uncertainties, such as material degradation and dynamic loads. The active learning Kriging model methods are widely used in structural reliability analysis to replace extensive time-consuming finite element simulations. However, they can only update one training sample and one failure mode per iteration, which limits their application to time-dependent, parallel computing, and multiple failure modes problems. In this study, we propose a new parallel active learning Kriging model for time-dependent reliability analysis, which can update multiple training samples and multiple failure modes per iteration. It includes the following strategies: (1) a novel parallel learning function is proposed, which combines the correlation function and U learning function to allow for the selection of multiple training samples per iteration; (2) an adaptive adjustment strategy for the number of parallel samples is proposed, which takes into account the prediction probability of parallel samples; (3) the proposed parallel learning function is integrated into time-dependent reliability analysis with multiple failure modes, enabling simultaneous updates of multiple training samples and failure modes, thus greatly reducing the number of iterations and computational time; and (4) a new stopping criterion is proposed to improve the efficiency of the estimation of failure probability. The proposed method can be applied to series or parallel time-dependent structural systems with multiple failure modes. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method through three examples, and the proposed method can achieve a balance between the computational time and function calls while maintaining a high level of accuracy in the estimation of time-dependent failure probability.