Time-dependent Reliability Analysis of Flood Defence Assets Using Generic Fragility Curve

Jaya Nepal,Jonathan Simm,Hua-Peng Chen,Ben Gouldby

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/20160703014

Jaya Nepal, Jonathan Simm + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20160703014

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Abstract

Flood defence assets such as earth embankments comprise the vital part of linear flood defences in many countries including the UK and protect inland from flooding. The risks of flooding are likely to increase in the future due to increasing pressure on land use, increasing rainfall events and rising sea level caused by climate change also affect aging flood defence assets. Therefore, it is important that the flood defence assets are maintained at a high level of safety and serviceability. The high costs associated with preserving these deteriorating flood defence assets and the limited funds available for their maintenance require the development of systematic approaches to ensure the sustainable flood-risk management system. The integration of realistic deterioration measurement and reliabilitybased performance assessment techniques has tremendous potential for structural safety and economic feasibility of flood defence assets. Therefore, the need for reliability-based performance assessment is evident. However, investigations on time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defence assets are limited. This paper presents a novel approach for time-dependent reliability analysis of flood defence assets. In the analysis, time-dependent fragility curve is developed by using the state-based stochastic deterioration model. The applicability of the proposed approach is then demonstrated with a case study.

Highlights

Flooding is a growing problem in the UK and worldwide
According to the article published in BBC the majority of the area in England and Wales will be under the worst case scenario of flood risk, as shown in Figure 1 and the cost associated with increased risk of flooding may rise by 20-fold in 2080
Many existing earth embankments are currently under threat due to global warming induced sea level rises and increased sea storminess, which results in increased magnitude and frequency of hydrodynamic actions, larger overtopping flows, increased stresses within the structures and reduced resistance of the structure

Summary

Introduction

Flooding is a growing problem in the UK and worldwide. According to the article published in BBC the majority of the area in England and Wales will be under the worst case scenario of flood risk, as shown in Figure 1 and the cost associated with increased risk of flooding may rise by 20-fold in 2080.

Results

Conclusion