Time-dependent photovoltaic performance assessment on a global scale using artificial neural networks

Abstract

The integration of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs), particularly solar PhotoVoltaics (PVs) has become an imperative aspect of sustainable energy systems. In this pursuit, accurate and efficient simulation tools play a pivotal role in optimizing the performance of PV systems. Traditional simulation approaches, while effective, are often characterized by computational complexities and time-intensive processes. This paper introduces a groundbreaking paradigm in solar energy modeling by harnessing the power of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to revolutionize the accuracy and reliability of PV system simulations. In this work, an hourly, daily, monthly and yearly comparison of the electrical energy obtained with the 5-parameter model and those obtained with the ANNs was developed. For this purpose, a very wide ensemble of localities around the world and types of PV systems were considered in the training and validation phase. ANNs exhibited a maximum mean absolute relative error of 3.5% during training and consistently maintained hourly relative errors below 5% across diverse localities during validation. Hourly power forecasting remains acceptable also in localities with extreme weather conditions. Monthly errors peak at high negative and positive latitudes in summer months when daylight duration exceeds nighttime. However, in the least accurate locality, yearly energy forecasting yielded a maximum error of 8%. Empirical equations based on the trained ANNs are proposed and a relative input-output importance criterion was applied to detect the impact of air temperature and solar radiation on the performance of each PV module. The proposed ANNs demonstrate significant utility in decision-making and real-time processes, providing a valuable framework for managing energy flows within a network and predicting energy production during specific time intervals. This alternative approach surpasses conventional dynamic simulation methodologies found in existing literature in terms of computational cost with comparable accuracy.