Time-Dependent Monitoring of Seismic Wave Velocity Variation Associated with Three Major Seismic Events at a Deep, Narrow-Vein Mine

Abstract

One of the most difficult challenges in underground mining is to forecast significant seismic events prior to their occurrence in order to support the safety of miners and to minimize damage to the underground operation. Passive seismic tomography is a tool to image the seismic velocity changes in a rockmass, which can potentially reveal the rockmass behavior before and after a significant seismic event. In this paper, the changes in seismic velocity of the rockmass before and after three major seismic events are investigated to determine whether there are identifiable precursory velocity changes associated with the major seismic events. Conventional mechanics imply that the induced stress at the hypocenter would continue increasing until failure, in the form of an induced seismic event, occurs. With passive seismic tomography we can image changes to the seismic wave velocity distribution within a rockmass and hence infer the changes to the induced stress near the hypocenter. This paper evaluates the hypothesis that induced stress at the hypocenter (as inferred by the p-wave velocity) increases until the seismic event occurs. In addition to analyzing p-wave velocity changes near the hypocenter, changes to the p-wave velocity at “zone centers” were also analyzed. These “zone centers” are regions within the rockmass that consistently have a p-wave velocity that is much higher than the average p-wave velocity for the rockmass. It is found that the p-wave velocity did not increase at any of the three hypocenters prior to the seismic event occurring, however the p-wave velocity did increase in the closest “zone center” for two of the three events.