Time delay and profit accumulation effect on a mine-based uranium market clearing model

Abstract

The mining industry faces a number of challenges such as market volatility, investment safety, issues surrounding employment and productivity. Therefore, computer simulations are highly relevant in order to reduce financial risks associated with these challenges. In the mining industry, each firm must compete with other mines and the basic target is profit maximization. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the world uranium (U) supply by simulating financial management challenges faced by an individual U mine that are caused by a variety of regulation issues.In this paper front-end nuclear fuel cycle tool is used to simulate market conditions and the effects they have on the stability of U supply. An individual U mine’s exit or entry in the market might cause changes in the U supply side which can increase or decrease the market price. In this paper we offer a more advanced version of a mine-based U market clearing model. The existing U market model incorporates the market of primary U from uranium mines with secondary uranium (depleted uranium DU), enriched uranium (HEU) and enrichment services. In the model each uranium mine acts as an independent agent that is able to make operational decisions based on the market price. This paper introduces a more realistic decision making algorithm of individual U mine that adds constraints to production decisions. The authors added an accumulated profit model, which allows for the profits accumulated to cover any possible future economic losses and the time-delay algorithm to simulate delayed process of reopening a U mine. The U market simulation covers time period 2010–2030 in order to illustrate the evolution of the front end markets under increased demand conditions for nuclear fuel. The offered conception is applicable for other nuclear fuel cycle simulators which contains front-end U market model or can be used with reactor models as a separate model. The model can be used to evaluate economic shocks in U supply or demand.