Time-based collision risk models for air traffic management systems

Abstract

A finite supply of airspace and limited opportunities for expansion of physical infrastructure has led aviation authorities worldwide to commit substantial resources toward the development of new initiatives to accommodate rising demand in the global airspace system. The European Union is developing the Single European Sky , while a parallel program in the USA, the Next Generation Air Traffic Management System, or NextGen , is introducing systems and procedures that promise safer operations, increased efficiency, and environmental sustainability. This paper serves to present two enabling steps toward achievement of those objectives. The first is the establishment of a metric to express the time-based performance of aircraft operating in trajectory-based operations environments. The second is a pair of stochastic models that provide a method by which the collision risk between these aircraft may be determined. Application is then demonstrated for the purpose of illustrating how future capacity requirements may be managed while maintaining an adequate margin of safety. The paper concludes by providing insight into the nature of required time performance that will be necessary to support forecasted levels of air traffic.