Time and space dependency in impact damage evaluation of a sub-Plinian eruption at Mount Vesuvius

Abstract

The volcanic eruptions have produced death and devastation along the ages; the victims caused by the documented events are about 260,000. Today, people subjected to volcanic risk are 500 million. They live predominantly in large conurbations, such as Tokyo, Mexico City, Seattle and Naples, which are located in the proximity of volcanoes with a high probability to erupt. Further, cause of concern is the elevated growth rates of the urban populations in the developing countries, seeing that many cities are located just above the tectonic belts where are predominantly situated the World’s most explosive volcanoes. Therefore, the volcanic risk mitigation of these areas requires a careful territorial planning together with an adequate knowledge of the behaviour of constructions under the eruption effects. The problem is very complex considering that a several number of actions (such as lavas, earthquakes, ash fall, pyroclastic flows, ballistics, landslides, tsunami and lahars) with a peculiar time–space distribution are produced by an eruptive event. Moreover, for the impact evaluation of a volcanic eruption, the time–space effect acquires a great importance, differently by the case of single catastrophic event (such as tectonic earthquakes, debris flows, etc.), since the sequence of the several exceptional actions which occur during an eruptive event, that modify the resistance characteristics of the struck constructions, in consequence, the impact damage evaluation requires analyses, step by step, of the eruptive process, the damage accumulated on the buildings and the distribution of the damage on the territory. All these aspects are examined in this paper which furnishes a useful compendium relating to the impact damage assessment produced on buildings by an explosive volcanic eruption, through the time–space variability analysis. This document organically summarizes the results of about 15 years of researches conducted by the PLINIVS Study Centre (Study Centre for the Hydrogeological, Volcanic and Seismic Engineering) with reference to the volcanic risk assessment, in the framework of the scientific literature on the topic. The paper analyses the probabilistic approaches used these days to treat Hazard, Vulnerability and Exposure in risk and impact evaluation of volcanic eruptions. Reliability of the model available is discussed; open problems and future improvement of the research in progress are highlighted. In conclusion, recommendations to follow for impact estimation studies in volcanology are reported.