Tide Prediction in the Venice Lagoon Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Neural Network

Abstract

In the Venice Lagoon some of the highest tides in the Mediterranean occur, which have influenced the evolution of the city of Venice and the surrounding lagoon for centuries. The forecast of “high waters” in the lagoon has always been a matter of considerable practical interest. In this study, tide prediction models were developed for the entire lagoon based on Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) neural networks. The NARX-based model development was performed in two different stages. The first stage was the training and testing of the NARX network, performed on data collected in a given time interval at the tide gauge of Punta della Salute, at the end of Canal Grande. The second stage consisted of a comprehensive validation of the model in the entire Venice Lagoon, with a detailed analysis of data from three measuring stations located in points of the lagoon with different characteristics. Good predictions were achieved regardless of whether the meteorological parameters were considered among input parameters, even with considerable time advance. Furthermore, the forecasting model based on NARX has proved capable of predicting even exceptional high tides. The proposed model could be a useful support tool for the management of the MOSE system, which will protect Venice from high waters.