Tidal triggering of earthquakes precursory to the recent Sumatra megathrust earthquakes of 26 December 2004 (Mw 9.0), 28 March 2005 (Mw 8.6), and 12 September 2007 (Mw 8.5)

Abstract

I observed tidal triggering of earthquakes precursory to the three giant earthquakes occurring off Sumatra on 26 December 2004 (Mw 9.0), 28 March 2005 (Mw 8.6), and 12 September 2007 (Mw 8.5). I measured the correlation between the Earth tide and earthquake occurrence in and around the focal regions of these megathrust earthquakes. The result of statistical analysis indicates that a high correlation appeared for several to ten years preceding the occurrence of the large earthquakes. The correlation vanished after the main events. The frequency distribution of tidal phase angles in the pre‐event period exhibited a peak near the angle where the tidal shear stress is at its maximum to accelerate the fault slip. This implies that the high correlation observed in the pre‐seismic stage is not a stochastic chance but is likely a physical consequence of the tidal stress change.