Abstract
Abstract. Previous studies on tidal flood mapping are mostly through continental- and/or global-scale approaches. Moreover, the few works on local-scale perception are concentrated in Europe, Asia, and North America. Here, we present a case study approaching a tidal flood risk mapping application in the face of climate change scenarios in a region with a strong environmental and social appeal. The study site is an estuarine cut in the Brazilian semi-arid region, covering part of two state conservation units, which has been suffering severe consequences from tidal flooding in recent years. In this case study, we used high-geodetic-precision data (lidar DEM), together with robust tidal return period statistics and data from current sea level rise scenarios. We found that approximately 327.60 km2 of the estuary is under tidal flood risk and in need of mitigation measures. This case study can serve as a basis for future management actions, as well as a model for applying risk mapping in other coastal areas.
Highlights
Climate change has been associated with various environmental and socioeconomic damage worldwide, with global mean sea level rise (SLR) being one of the main associated phenomena (Nicholls and Cazenave, 2010; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2014; Busman et al, 2016; Dangendorf et al, 2019; Bamber et al, 2019)
The effect of Astronomical tide (AT) and meteorological tide (MT) on the coast is observed as a variation in sea level or free surface, and it is at this level that waves propagate (SMC-Brasil, 2018)
From the GOS data and the Directorate of Hydrography and Navigation (DHN) data applied in this research, it was possible to observe the tidal behaviour in the tropical Piancó–Piranhas– Açu estuary (Fig. 4)
Summary
Climate change has been associated with various environmental and socioeconomic damage worldwide, with global mean sea level rise (SLR) being one of the main associated phenomena (Nicholls and Cazenave, 2010; IPCC, 2014; Busman et al, 2016; Dangendorf et al, 2019; Bamber et al, 2019). The changes produced by rising and falling mean sea levels (MSLs) have important implications for the dynamics and morphology of coastal environments, and it is in these environments that a considerable part of the world’s population lives (Neumann et al, 2015). It has been causing flooding of natural habitats and coastal infrastructures and causing environmental and socioeconomic impacts of varying magnitudes (Dwarakisha et al, 2009; IPCC, 2014; Murray et al, 2019). The flooding that used to happen only during a powerful or localized storm can happen when a steady breeze or a change in coastal current overlaps with high tide, as occurs, for example, in the USA (NOAA, 2019)
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