Thromboembolic risk dynamics, integrated care management and outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: a proof-of-concept analysis from the SPORTIF trials

Abstract

Abstract Introduction Few data exist on the impact of thromboembolic risk dynamics in determining a higher risk of adverse clinical outcomes in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. Moreover, no evidence is available about the possible impact of integrated care, as defined by the `Atrial fibrillation Better Care' (ABC) pathway, in modulating the clinical outcomes associated with the dynamic changes in risk. Purpose To study thromboembolic risk dynamics and the relationship with integrated care, also in determining the risk of adverse outcomes in AF patients. Methods We analysed patients from the randomized controlled SPORTIF III and V trials. Thromboembolic risk was assessed according to CHA2DS2-VASc score. Integrated care was assessed according to ABC pathway adherence. The primary endpoint was the composite clinical outcome of all-cause death and major adverse cardiovascular events. Results A total of 3589 patients [mean (SD) age was 70.9 (8.8) years; 30.4% female; median [IQR] baseline CHA2DS2-VASc 3 [2–4]) were available for the analysis. Over a mean 573.8 (SD 129.5) days of follow-up, a total of 67 (1.9%) reported an increase in CHA2DS2-VASc score, with a mean (SD) delta of 0.0295 (0.2257). Among those with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc, 29 (43.3%) reported a 1-point increase, 37 (55.2%) reported a 2-point increase and only 1 (1.5%) reported a 3-point increase. A total of 948 (26.4%) patients were managed adherent to ABC pathway and overall, a median (IQR) of 2 [1–3] ABC criteria were fulfilled in the patients included. An adjusted linear regression analysis found that an increasing number of ABC pathway criteria fulfilled was inversely associated with increase in CHA2DS2-VASc score throughout follow-up (Beta −0.010, 95% CI −0.019 to −0.001), p=0.045), while considering the single ABC criteria, only the “C” criteria was inversely associated with an increase in CHA2DS2-VASc score (Beta −0.018, 95% CI −0.034 to −0.001, p=0.038). A total of 255 (7.1%) clinical events were recorded. An adjusted Cox regression analysis found that both increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score (HR 2.67, 95% CI 2.12–3.36, p<0.001) and increasing number of ABC pathway criteria fulfilled (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.61–0.82) were independently associated with adverse outcomes. A regression line studying the interaction between increasing CHA2DS2-VASc, and ABC pathway adherence showed trends for improved risk reductions in clinical adverse outcomes when patients with increasing thromboembolic risk were managed according to integrated care [Figure 1]. Conclusions Integrated care was associated with a lower progression in the thromboembolic risk of AF patients, particular through the optimal management of cardiovascular risk factors and comorbidities. Both increasing thromboembolic risk and increasing adherence to ABC pathway were independently associated, although inversely, with occurrence of adverse clinical outcomes. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.