Threshold limit theorems for some epidemic processes

Abstract

The Reed–Frost model for the spread of an infection is considered and limit theorems for the total size, T, of the epidemic are proved in the limit when n, the initial number of healthy persons, is large and the probability of an encounter between a healthy and an infected person per time unit, p, is λ/n. It is shown that there is a critical threshold λ = 1 in the following sense, when the initial number of infected persons, m, is finite: If λ ≦ 1, T remains finite and has a limit distribution which can be described. If λ > 1 this is still true with a probability σ m < 1, and with probability 1 – σ m T is close to n(1 – σ) and has an approximately Gaussian distribution around this value. When m → ∞ also, only the Gaussian part of the limit distribution is obtained. A randomized version of the Reed–Frost model is also considered, and this allows the same result to be proved for the Kermack–McKendrick model. It is also shown that the limit theorem can be used to study the number of connected components in a random graph, which can be considered as a crude description of a polymerization process. In this case polymerization takes place when λ > 1 and not when λ ≦ 1.