Threshold effect of ecosystem services in response to human activity in China's urban agglomeration: a perspective on quantifying ecological resilience.

Abstract

Ecological resilience reflects the role of human activity intensity (HMI) on regional ecosystem services (ESs), and resilience improvement is crucial for the high-quality development of urban agglomeration areas. However, a theoretical framework for ecological resilience needs to be developed based on ES thresholds under human activities. Based on the threshold index, we used threshold regression model to determine of the nonlinear dominant factors affecting ESs and to identify the priority areas for ecological restoration. The results suggest that (1) CS, HQ, and TES declined, while FP increased. The spatial distribution of each ES showed higher values in the central region and lower values in the surrounding areas. HMI showed a significant upward trend, with expanding high-HMI areas. There is a threshold effect in the relationship between HMI and ESs, leading to variations in their positive, non-monotonic, or non-linear interactions. (2) HMI positively and significantly affects ESs, especially at low threshold levels. The effect of HMI on ESs is negative in counties with higher threshold levels rather than in lower-level grids. (3) The critical area of artificial potential ecological restoration was 712 km2, primarily concentrated around urban; the critical area of natural restoration was 490 km2. Therefore, the threshold in the relationship between HMI and ESs should be given more attention. This study serves as a guide for picking out key regions for territorial ecological restoration.