Three-layer and robust planning models to evaluate the strategies of defense layer, attack layer, and operation layer for optimal protection in natural gas pipeline network

Abstract

Using game theory techniques, a three-layer planning model (THLPM) for the defense, attack, and operational layers has been established to address malicious damage to pipelines. A robust planning model was developed for situations with uncertain attack resources. In this model, the defense layer protects critical infrastructure within the network to minimize losses. The attack layer targets unprotected facilities based on the defensive strategy. The operational layer formulates the optimal pipeline transmission strategy based on the decisions of the defense and attack layers. By utilizing the duality theorem, the THLPM is transformed into a two-layer planning problem, which is then linearized and solved using a decomposition algorithm. Taking a specific ring-shaped pipeline network as an example, the study analyzes the significant role of backup pipelines in enhancing system resilience and evaluates the offensive and defensive strategies of THLPM. The effectiveness of THLPM in protecting the network was assessed, showing that when defense and attack resources are invested at levels 3 and 10, respectively, operational costs of the network are reduced by 54.2 % compared to a scenario without any defenses. The methods proposed in this paper are applicable to other pipeline systems.