Three English By‐Elections–What Have we Learned?

Abstract

AbstractThere have been three recent English Westminster by‐elections, in Hartlepool, Chesham and Amersham, and Batley and Spen. Each of these seats illustrates a different type of party competition and so taken together allow a picture of how voters’ preferences are evolving in the post‐Brexit and post‐pandemic world. This article places each of these by‐elections into a longer‐term perspective, looking at the underlying political changes that have driven the different results. The decline of party identification over this period means that voters are less attached to parties than in the past, more willing to vote for smaller parties and as a result, less predictable in their behaviour. Each of the by‐elections highlights the behaviour of a different group of voters, related to both Brexit and other social identities. The results suggest that we should continue to expect the unexpected when the British electorate goes to the polls, as voting behaviour becomes influenced by complex combinations of values, identities and interests.