Abstract
When a CME arrives at the Earth, it will interact with the magnetosphere, sometimes causing hazardous space weather events. Thus, the study of CMEs which arrived at Earth (hereinafter, Earth-impacting CMEs) has attracted much attention in the space weather and space physics communities. Previous results have suggested that the three-dimensional parameters of CMEs play a crucial role in deciding whether and when they reach Earth. In this work, we use observations from the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) to study the three-dimensional parameters of 71 Earth-impacting CMEs from the middle of 2008 to the end of 2012. We find that the majority Earth-impacting CMEs originate from the region of [30S,30N] × [40E,40W] on the solar disk; Earth-impacting CMEs are more likely to have a central propagation angle (CPA) no larger than half-angular width, a negative correlation between velocity and acceleration, and propagation time is inversely related to velocity. Based on our findings, we develop an empirical statistical model to forecast the arrival time of the Earth-impacting CME. Also included is a comparison between our model and the aerodynamic drag model.
Highlights
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is a powerful solar explosion that contains a huge amount of plasma with energy of 1031∼1032 erg and mass of 1014∼1016 g [1,2,3]
After finishing Graduated Cylindrical Shell (GCS) fitting and some early simple data processing, we find that eight CMEs among the 77 events are not suitable to be modeled by the GCS model and should be excluded
We suspect that two special events (ICME around 07:30:00 UT, June 2010 and 05:33:00 UT, 28 May 2011 [51]) are the results of two CMEs’ interaction, we perform GCS fitting for both of the two source CMEs
Summary
A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is a powerful solar explosion that contains a huge amount of plasma with energy of 1031∼1032 erg and mass of 1014∼1016 g [1,2,3]. Wang et al (2002) [26] did a statistical study on the geoeffectiveness of Earth-directed coronal mass ejections from March 1997 to December 2000 based on the observations of the Large Angle Spectroscopic COronagraph (LASCO) [34] and Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) [35] onboard SOlar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) [36]. Their results suggest that the initial sites of the frontside halo CMEs are around ±30◦ in latitude and the CMEs transit time show a weak correlation with the CME projected speed.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
