Three-Dimensional Ground Motion Simulations for Large Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault with Dynamic and Observational Constraints

Abstract

I have simulated 0–0.5 Hz viscoelastic ground motion in Los Angeles from M 7.5 earthquakes on the San Andreas fault using a fourth-order staggered-grid finite-difference method. Two scenarios are considered: (a) a southeast propagating and (b) a northwest propagating rupture along a 170-km long stretch of the fault near Los Angeles in a 3D velocity model. The scenarios use variable slip and rise time distributions inferred from the kinematic inversion results for the 1992 M 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake. The spatially variable static slip distribution used in this study, unlike that modeled in a recent study,1 is in agreement with constraints provided by rupture dynamics. I find peak ground velocities for (a) and (b) of 49 cm/s and 67 cm/s, respectively, near the fault. The near-fault peak motions for scenario (a) are smaller compared to previous estimates from 3D modeling for both rough and smooth faults.1,2 The lower near-fault peak motions are in closer agreements with constraints from precarious rocks located near the fault. Peak velocities in Los Angeles are about 30% larger for (b) 45 cm/s compared to those for (a) 35 cm/s.