Three-dimensional creep calculation model for reliability analysis of concrete-filled steel tubular (CFST) structure

Abstract

For long-span concrete-filled steel tube (CFST) structure, it is essential to implement efficient and realistic prediction models for the long-term processes of core concrete creep. In order to systematically study the main influential factors in CFST structure creep effects, a probabilistic analysis can be performed. The objective of this paper is to analyse the long-term response of CFST structure by using time-dependent reliability method. To address the problem of creep calculation, a novel and comprehensive presentation was developed. By converting the integral-type creep law to a differential-type form with internal variables, based on the Kelvin chain model, an elastic structural analysis with generally orthotropic elastic moduli and eigenstrains was established. We have compiled a three-dimensional (3-D) finite-element analysis programme that considers the creep Poisson effect of core concrete to analyse the long-term performance of the CFST structure. This is achieved by developing a commercial finite element code, such as Usermat in ANSYS. As calculation examples, several time-dependent analyses of a CFST stub column and long-span CFST arch bridge were performed. The calculated results of long-term behaviour agree well with experimental and measured data. Considering the randomness of various input parameters, such as physical dimensions and materials of the CFST structure, we have analysed the uncertainty using the Latin-hypercube-sampling (LHS) stochastic finite-element method. The results of creep sensitivity analysis revealed that coefficient of creep model uncertainty, steel and concrete elastic modulus were the three most influential parameters for CFST stub columns’ creep, and load, coefficient of creep model uncertainty, relative humidity, steel and concrete elastic modulus were the five for CFST arch bridges’ long-term deflection. In addition, the use of Monte Carlo (MC) and response surface (RS) methods for structural stochastic reliability analysis demonstrates the ability of these approaches to assess the reliability index of long-span CFST arch bridges. This provides a valuable reference for the design and performance evaluation of CFST structures.