Three-dimensional (3D) Monte-Carlo modeling for UAS collision risk management in restricted airport airspace

Abstract

The increased availability of off-the-shelf recreational unmanned aerial systems (UAS) on the market has greatly increased the likelihood of UAS intrusion, regardless of intent, into the controlled airspace. Such intrusion is especially a concern for airports in Singapore, where the consequence for a UAS collision is high and the 5 km restricted airport airspace covers nearly half of its overland airspace. The 3D Monte-Carlo UAS positional distribution model, based on flight dynamics of the UAS, was developed to help assess the risk posed by the UAS to aircraft operating inside the aerodrome. Simulations were carried out to establish the Alert Zone boundaries to quickly determine the collision risk posed by non-cooperative UAS sightings for various airport operation scenarios. The 3D model was also used to carry out simulations that could help determine the buffer airspace needed for cooperative UAS operating inside the aerodrome.