Three Decades of Oasis Transition and Its Driving Factors in Turpan–Hami Basin in Xinjiang, China: A Complex Network Approach

Abstract

As a predominant ecosystem-providing area and distinctive landscape in arid regions, an oasis plays an important role in maintaining land stability, human production, and daily activities. Studying the dynamics of oasis and its driving factors is vital to supporting arid regions’ sustainable development. As a typical mountain–desert–oasis landscape, the Turpan–Hami (Tuha) Basin, located in Xinjiang, China, includes complex interactions among different land types. For this study, we revealed the spatio-temporal patterns and transition processes of the oasis using a complex network method between 1990 and 2020 in the Tuha Basin. In the oasis transition network, the degree value, betweenness centrality, and average path length were calculated to express the transition relationship, key oasis type, and oasis structural stability, respectively. Six factors related to climate change and human actives were selected to investigate the driving forces behind oasis transitions, including the average temperature and precipitation in the growing season, the total power of agricultural machinery (TAMP), the production of raw coal (PRC), the total output value of the plantation industry (TPI), and the population (Pop). Our results show that the oasis area of the Tuha Basin, including the natural oasis and artificial oasis, all grew from 1990 to 2020, with the natural oasis expanding more than the artificial oasis. The transitions between oasis types became more frequent as the area of oasis land types increased throughout the study period. Grassland acted as the most important oasis type in the network, with the highest betweenness centrality, but its importance declined due to the increasing complexity of the oasis transition network from 1990 to 2020. The transitions between oasis types became simpler, and the oasis structural stability decreased. Through driving force analysis, the oasis changes showed a positive correlation with the temperature (p-value < 0.05, r = 0.88), and urbanization and industrialization factors prompted transitions to built-up areas and cropland from grassland and shrubland. In summary, our results suggest that to create a harmonious symbiotic relationship between the natural environment in dryland and human activities, preventing grassland degradation and excessive reclamation of land cover is an available way. Meanwhile, the protection of shrubland and water resources is also important. This study provided reference and theory support for promoting the sustainable development of oases.