Threats won’t work

Abstract

There is significant debate over Iran’s nuclear program and their potential for weaponization. One camp of scholars and policy makers argue that a nuclear Iran would bring stability to the region while others argue that the regime will become a more aggressive threat. To better analyze the situation we must understand Iran’s intentions. To investigate Iran’s intentions I use a multimethod approach, employing operational code and image theory, to examine the worldview of Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, in regards to how he perceives the international system broadly, and the United States specifically. Understanding Khamenei’s perceptions and motivations provides a foundation on which to analyze the issue of a nuclear Iran. The results suggest that Khamenei is moderate and seeks to compromise and work with other actors, provided the other actors negotiate without making threats, consistent with prior research positing that nuclear weapons are sought to increase influence on the world stage.