Threats to national security and public support for integration: the case of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh

Abstract

ABSTRACTThis study explores how the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh influences Armenians’ attitudes toward competing European- and Russian-led integration blocs. I focus on public reactions to a recent episode of violence - the four-day war in April 2016 - and why the clash may have increased the likelihood of support for (1) security integration (with NATO and the CSTO) rather than economic integration (with the EU and the EEU) and (2) joint relations with Europe and Russia rather than relations with one region. I test these propositions, pre-registered with the Open Science Framework, with data from the 2017 Caucasus Barometer. A series of statistical models find no evidence in support of the hypotheses. However, I find unexpected results in additional tests, which show substantively modest but positive statistical relationships between security concerns and the degree of support for integration. The findings imply that while security threats do not persuade citizens to shift support toward a particular integration alternative, they do intensify existing integration preferences. Factors that connect the identity of respondents to Russia or Europe are the most influential determinants of support for integration.