Threat credibility and weapons of mass destruction

Abstract

Individual or collective preparedness for an attack involving weapons of mass destruction (WMD) must be based on an analysis of the threat. In threat assessment one takes many factors into account, including the physical and psychological parameters of the attacker. Although the potential devastation caused by WMD is significant, there are many limitations to the effective use of such weapons. Casualty rates will likely be measured in the thousands rather than millions because of factors that will be discussed. The psychological ramifications, it should be noted, the permutations of which have not yet been defined, will be much longer lasting. In this paper the author discusses these and other characteristics of the current threat.