Threat, coping and flood prevention – A meta-analysis

Abstract

In order to understand flood preventive intentions and behaviors in individuals, the research literature of the last decades has turned to the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT; Rogers, 1975, 1983) as a prominent framework. Yet a meta-analytical synthesis of these research results is still missing. The present meta-analysis combines correlation and regression coefficients reported from 35 single studies using 47 independent samples (N = 35,419). Data analysis shows that threat appraisal (r+ = 0.23) and coping appraisal (r+ = 0.30) are both significantly associated with flood preventive intentions/behaviors. Meta-analytical structural equation modeling (MASEM) indicates that flood-related emotions and trust in public institutions qualify as additional predictors, whereas past flood experiences qualify only as an indirect predictor. Overall, the extended PMT model explains 15% of variance in flood preventive intentions/behaviors. In relation to the effect size (ES) variability, meta-analytical ANOVAs confirm a moderating impact of the dependent variable (intention vs. behavior), and of the date of publication (before or after 2012). Implications for future research are discussed.