Threat assessments and heritage in the age of hybrid warfare

Abstract

ABSTRACT In Sweden, civil and military defence is scaling up in response to a perceived increased threat caused by a deteriorated security and geopolitical situation in Europe over the last decade. This defence includes the planning for how to protect heritage in case of conflict on Swedish territory. Part of this planning is based on assessments of the types of threat that heritage in Sweden could face. By combining methods from intelligence studies with heritage studies, we demonstrate that although some threats remain, other threats have changed over time. In particular, threats associated with hybrid warfare do not belong to the risk analysis traditionally carried out within the sector. The findings presented here are based on Swedish sources and suggest that the heritage sector needs to rethink how to respond to threats against heritage in war and non-violent conflict. Historically, the heritage sector has planned for protection against wartime destruction and against crime in peacetime but in recent years, hybrid threats, including cyber attacks, influence, and subversion, have become more pronounced, demanding other responses and increased awareness of media and opinions. This also raises questions as to how we value heritage – what is considered important and to whom?