Those who leave: Out-migration and decentralisation of welfare beneficiaries in gentrified Paris

Abstract

In major metropolitan areas, gentrification, financialisation and welfare retrenchment contribute to a severe housing crisis. Over the past 20 years, home price inflation and affordable housing shrinkage have been particularly acute in Paris. Such issues have been linked to the displacement of lower-income Parisians and the suburbanisation of poverty on a regional scale. In this article, we match disaggregated data from the Family Benefits Fund (CAF) with information on local housing markets, to empirically document these expulsionary processes. Our methodology is twofold. First, we investigate out-migration factors using logistic regressions. Second, we compare households’ changes in access to the city centre and urban resources following a move. Data show that social vulnerability is associated with a greater risk of leaving Paris and that housing welfare is playing a crucial role in mitigating this risk. Also, the higher the pressure on local housing markets, the more social inequalities determine mobility behaviour. Finally, beyond the effects of family structure, patterns of decentralisation are related to income level: less affluent households go farther from the city centre, job opportunities and services than higher-income households.