Thomas R. Marshall. American Public Opinion and the Supreme Court, 1930–2020: A Representative Institution

Abstract

To ask how the Supreme Court’s decision-making represents public opinion is to strike at the heart of the Court’s role in American politics. Does the system of government created by the Constitution really need another institution that responds to public opinion? Are there more important values for the Court to focus on? In 2022, whom the current Court represents is a salient question. The Court has embarked on a third whirlwind term since Amy Coney Barrett’s arrival secured a conservative supermajority. To this Court, representation seems less of an active concern than the pursuit of originalist bona fides. This approach was apparent in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, where 57 percent disapproved of the Court’s decision to overturn the decades-old Roe v. Wade (Pew Research Center 2022). No one knows what the future holds for this Court. However, a data-driven understanding of the Court’s approach to representation may provide clues about consequences of its rightward shift. This knowledge could also help policymakers forecast the effects of proposals targeting the Court.