This water is all ours: Water demand and civil conflicts

Abstract

This article provides the first assessment of the relationship between competition over water resources and water-related civil conflicts within countries. Pressure on water resources is a major concern and source of conflict. In recent decades, this pressure has been increasing due to rising water demand. This study examines the effect of three indicators of water demand that are likely to affect the occurrence of water-related civil conflicts: population density, international trade, and income per capita. We rely on a linear probability model with fixed-effects on a sample of 144 countries between 1961 and 2018. The results reveal that, among the three factors, demographic pressure is the only positive and robust determinant of the occurrence of water disputes. Furthermore, while pressure on water resources appears to be a relevant channel mediating population density's effect on the probability of water conflicts, this density effect is mitigated when populations' access to water resources for domestic consumption increases. Finally, it appears that population density is particularly relevant in explaining conflicts where the main issue is the access or control of water resources and where water is used as a weapon.