This outcome feels right! subjective evaluations of coin flip outcomes reflect previously stated preferences.

Mariela E Jaffé,Rainer Greifeneder,Camelia Delcea

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0253751

Abstract

When facing a difficult decision, individuals may rely on a coin flip to help them come to a conclusion. In some cases, however, individuals might not adhere to the coin’s outcome, but instead report liking or disliking the coin flip’s outcome, and may use this affective reaction to form their decision. In this manuscript we investigate the affective reaction towards the outcome of a coin flip and determine whether this affective reaction provides valid feedback in regards to individuals’ underlying preferences (Hypothesis 1). We further test whether flipping a coin results in a higher alignment between previous preferences and subsequent decisions (Hypothesis 2). We conducted three studies in the lab and with online samples. Throughout all studies we found support for the notion that the affective reactions regarding the coin flip’s outcome validly reflect previously indicated preferences or attractiveness ratings. Contrary to wide-spread expectations, however, we did not find reliable support for the notion that flipping a coin, compared to a control group, leads to decisions that are more in line with the previously stated preferences.

Highlights

Coin flips are often considered to be useful decision aids
Effect sizes differ for the different levels of attractiveness, with larger effect sizes for the medium and low attractiveness trials compared to the high attractiveness trials
When looking at the different attractiveness levels in an exploratory fashion, we see that effects were again present across all levels, and while the effects varied in strengths across attractiveness levels, there seems to be no consistent pattern

Summary

Introduction

Coin flips are often considered to be useful decision aids. In some cases, such as when deciding which team should start in a soccer game, the coin flip serves as a fair and quick means to determine the decision. Previous research has shown that about 46% of a German sample from the general public (interested in psychological research) had applied this strategy before [1] Both the survey and anecdotal evidence suggest that individuals do not fully outsource the decision to the coin; instead, they report satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the coin flip’s outcome [1]. Consistent with this affective reaction, they may decide to (not) adhere to the outcome (or flip the coin again, until they like the outcome).

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion