Thirty-Nine-Year Wave Hindcast, Storm Activity, and Probability Analysis of Storm Waves in the Kara Sea, Russia

Stanislav Myslenkov,Vladimir Platonov,Igor Medvedev,Alexander Kislov,Ksenia Silvestrova

doi:10.3390/w13050648

Abstract

The recurrence of extreme wind waves in the Kara Sea strongly influences the Arctic climate change. The period 2000–2010 is characterized by significant climate warming, a reduction of the sea ice in the Arctic. The main motivation of this research to assess the impact of climate change on storm activity over the past 39 years in the Kara Sea. The paper presents the analysis of wave climate and storm activity in the Kara Sea based on the results of numerical modeling. A wave model WAVEWATCH III is used to reconstruct wind wave fields for the period from 1979 to 2017. The maximum significant wave height (SWH) for the whole period amounts to 9.9 m. The average long-term SWH for the ice-free period does not exceed 1.3 m. A significant linear trend shows an increase in the storm wave frequency for the period from 1979 to 2017. It is shown that trends in the storm activity of the Kara Sea are primarily regulated by the ice. Analysis of the extreme storm events showed that the Pareto distribution is in the best agreement with the data. However, the extreme events with an SWH more than 6‒7 m deviate from the Pareto distribution.

Highlights

We present the wave hindcast of the Kara Sea with a high spatial and temporal resolution
The wave characteristics in the Kara Sea were calculated by the spectral wave model
Kara Sea based on the results of wave modeling

Summary

Introduction

Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. The interest increases in the study of the hydrometeorological conditions of the Arctic seas due to the active economic development of this region. The active oil and mineral field exploration and development occur here, in this region. The Arctic is an area of intensive shipping and fishery. Sea ice, and wave conditions are limiting factors for the economic activity and the development of the infrastructure in the coastal zone. The storm waves can destruct the infrastructure facilities in coastal zones and offshore, that threaten human life and cause economic damage

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