Third-order inference for autocorrelation in nonlinear regression models

Abstract

We propose third-order likelihood-based methods to derive highly accurate p-value approximations for testing autocorrelated disturbances in nonlinear regression models. The proposed methods are particularly accurate for small- and medium-sized samples whereas commonly used first-order methods like the signed log-likelihood ratio test, the Kobayashi (1991) test, and the standardized test can be seriously misleading in these cases. Two Monte Carlo simulations are provided to show how the proposed methods outperform the above first-order methods. An empirical example applied to US population census data is also provided to illustrate the implementation of the proposed method and its usefulness in practice.